Talk about 'hope and a prayer.'

The government is expecting that the worst is over and that a consumer led recovery will happen in the face of
1) The highest unemployment since the Great Depression. The rate is only going down if you don't count people have been out of work for a really long time.
2) A commercial real estate crash that is arguably only in the 3rd inning.
3) A mortgage crisis that has been little affected by government programs and is just now beginning to jump to prime and jumbo borrowers.
4) The 7th largest economy in the world (California) essentially in a Chapter 11 reorganization.
5) Rising interest rates as the economic outlook 'improves' and the Fed stops purchasing 10 year bonds this October. (1/2 trillion purchased to date - these must be sold eventually)